Vietnam is forecast to import US$90.3 billion of goods this year, up 13 per cent from 2008, and trade gap will widen to US$19.2 billion, according to Minister of Industry and Trade Vu Huy Hoang.
Minister Hoang told a meeting on tasks for 2009 that the factors including prices of four essential goods of steel, steel ingot, fertilizer and petroleum product dropping 30 per cent to 50 per cent and Dung Quat oil refinery to be operated will help narrow the country’s trade deficit to US$19.2 billion, accounting for 27 per cent of exports value.
Last year, Vietnam exported US$62.9 billion of goods, up 29.5 per cent on year and imported US$80.416 billion of goods, up 28.3 per cent, and trade deficit widened to US$17.516 billion, the General Statistics Office said.
Footwear exports growth will slow to 10 per cent to US$10 billion, down from 14 per cent in 2008.
The second scenario is more optimistic with 30 per cent probability, Chi said, predicting that the global crisis will stop by the end of June this year and Vietnam’s exports will grow 13 per cent to US$72 billion.
Meanwhile, PhD Pham Do Chi, a lead economist of the International Monetary Fund, has given out two scenarios of Vietnam’s export outlook.
For the first scenario which is rather pessimistic with 70 per cent probability of happening, Chi predicted that the global financial crisis will prolong by the end of December, resulting in decreasing demand over the globe and difficulties for exporters.
Vietnam’s exports of rice, coffee, cashew nuts, rubber, seafood and furniture will grow by only 11 per cent to US$17.2 billion this year, which will pull down average growth rate to 21.4 per cent from 33.87 per cent between 2004 and 2007, Chi noted. (Investment, GSO December 2008)
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