GSO Maps Out Two GDP Growth Scenarios for 2022

10:17:07 AM | 4/7/2022

The General Statistics Office (GSO) has sketched out two scenarios for Viet Nam's economic growth in 2022.

In a downside scenario, the Vietnamese economy would expand 6 percent this year if the Russia-Ukraine conflict remains tense while the COVID-19 outbreak is put under control in Viet Nam.

With this scenario, the GDP is projected to grow by 5.5 percent in Q2, 7.5 percent in Q3, and 6.1 percent in Q4, according to the GSO.

In an optimistic scenario, GDP would hit 6.5% this year if the Russia-Ukraine conflict cools down and the inoculation of the COVID-19 booster shot is accomplished.

With this scenario, the GDP growth rates would reach 6.1 percent in Q2, 7.5 percent in Q3, and 6.1 percent in Q4.

Earlier, the GSO reported that the economy was estimated to grow by 5.03 percent in January-March period compared to 4.72 percent of the same period last year.

Previously, the World Bank predicted Viet Nam's economy would grow at 5.5 percent in 2022 while the International Monetary Fund forecasted that the Southeast Asian country's economy would expand 6.6 percent, up from 2.6% in 2021.

Many foreign investment funds predicted that Viet Nam will achieve GDP growth of about 7.5% in 2022 or even higher thanks to the expansion of domestic consumption, construction activities, and international tourism, as well as thanks to the Government's financial stimulus package worth US$15 billion.