The National Center for Socioeconomic Information and Forecasting (NCEIF) under the Ministry of Planning and Investment announced two scenarios for Vietnam’s economic growth this year at a conference held in Hanoi on January 14.
For the first scenario, the NCEIF forecast that Vietnam’s economy will grow 6% to 6.5% this year, to be driven by industrial and construction sectors and services which are expected to expand 6.4%-6.8% and 7.1%-7.9%, respectively.
Total investments will account for 40% of the country’s GDP and state budget deficit will be 6.2%, Le Dinh An, an economist of the NCEIF was cited by the Dau tu Tai chinh newspaper published by the Ministry of Finance as predicting.
For the second scenario, the country’s economy will expand 7%, led by industrial production and construction and services that are expected to grow 6.8%-7.4% and 7.9%-8.5%, respectively.
To achieve the higher growth, Vietnam must accept to increase its total investments to 835 trillion, or 42% of the country’s GDP, which will widen the state budget deficit to 6.5% of the GDP, An said.
This year Vietnam’s exports revenue will be US$66.4 billion to US$67.8 billion while its imports will be US$77.5 billion to US$80 billion, which means that its trade gap will be US$12 billion, the NCEIF projected.
For both scenarios, An raised his concerns about probability of high inflation this year, the Tuoi Tre newspaper reported Thursday. An also proposed a number of measures to boost effectiveness operations of local banks, restructure exports items.
Meanwhile, Doan Hong Quang, a senior official of the World Bank in Vietnam has taken a cautious look about 2010’s prospects because signs of the global economic recovery and exports are based mainly on stimulus packages by the governments around the world and once the packages are to be exited many shortcomings will be exposed.
Tran Dinh Cung, deputy dean of the Central Institute of Economic Management (CIEM) advised that Vietnam should prioritize to stabilize the macroeconomic conditions instead of pursuing a higher growth.
Cung proposed that the government should create a breakthrough in simplifying the administrative procedures and if 30% of the 6,000 existing procedures are cut local firms will be much benefited.
The International Monetary Fund also forecast that Vietnam’s economy will grow 6% this year.
The conference also attracted the participation of leading economists and senior officials of 150 firms out of the top 500 in Vietnam. (Local sources)
Vietnamese
