Inflation to Increase Beyond Expectations in 2007

3:48:59 PM | 7/2/2007

According to the General Statistics Office, the consumer price index (CPI) in June will increase up to 0.85 percent in comparison with last month, a 5.2 percent increase in CPI over the first six months of the year. Facing the situation, economists forecast that CPI this year could not be lower than 6 percent as expected.
 
In June, services, such as restaurants and food, have the fastest price increase (1.02 percent. This increase is caused by bird-flu, which cuts food resources. Besides, the impact of hot weather pushes up the price of some food.
 
The economists added that the constant increase of petrol is also another reason to raise the CPI of houses and construction materials in June. Last month, the sector’s CPI grew just 0.87 percent, but in June has gone up 1.33 percent. However, increasing USD price is steady at 0.26 percent, increasing by 0.1 percent on average in recent months.
 
It is forecast that in the next months, CPI will fluctuate with unforeseeable factors, particularly drought, flood, the spread of bird flu or increasing consumer demand. On the other hand, international market prices and fluctuating gold, petrol, food and input material prices also have a great influence on the CPI. According to the Ministry of Trade, the prices of essential goods such as food, fruit, milk, gas, and steel are expected to increase, as well as petrol. Other goods such as domestic plastic, aluminium and construction materials are impacted by these increasing prices.
 
Addressing the effects of higher than expected CPI growth on economic development, the Government Office released June 4th the executive documents of Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung on trade and price. The Prime Minister asked the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Trade and the National Bank to balance the macro-economy, the control of market and goods prices - especially essential goods used for production and life - and to guarantee price growth no greater than economic growth.

Quynh Chi