Vietnam Economy to Grow 8.2% in 2010: Goldman Sachs
Vietnam’s economy will grow 5.1% in 2009 and 8.2% next year, Goldman Sachs said in a report December 3.
In its report, the U.S.-based bank attributed Vietnam’s economic recovery since the second quarter of this year to the rising domestic demand.
Goldman Sachs added that Vietnam’s economy has well warded off the negative impacts of the global financial crisis thanks to the stimulus program and loosed monetary policy.
In the third quarter, Vietnam’s GDP expanded by 5.2% from a year earlier, nearly equaling to the average level of 5.3% of Asia, excluding Japan, it said.
The report also pointed out some of the challenges the economy has to face, including upward trend of inflation and the balance of payments situation.
Goldman said Vietnam continued seeing trade deficit because its soaring domestic demand will lead to the rise of imports, which saw sharp falls in early 2009 while exports recovered more slowly.
Concerning the fiscal policies, although part of Vietnam’s expanded fiscal policy will be continued in 2010, the budgetary deficit in comparison with 2010 GDP will not soar. Goldman forecast that Vietnam’s budget deficit will be at least 9% this year.
“We think that Vietnam’s loosened monetary policy is going to end because State Bank of Vietnam applied tightening up policies such as hiking interest rates or reducing liquidity of monetary market to curb inflation 2010", said analyst Hellen Qiao, author of the report.
The report wrote that 2010 is another important year when Vietnamese lawmakers will have to meet difficulties in easing inflation pressure while avoiding disadvantageous impacts to the economic growth.
But it believed that the Government would be able to keep the inflation under control. (Banking Times)
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