Vietnam Economy to Rise Sharply in Q2 2010: Fulbright Director
Vietnam's economy is on track to recover and will grow fast from the second quarter of next year, said Vu Thanh Tu Anh, director at the Fulbright Economics Teaching Program at an offline workshop in Ho Chi Minh City recently.
The economy recorded a growth of 4.56% in the first nine months and is expected to achieve a GDP growth of 6.8% in the fourth quarter, and 5.2% for 2009.
“I do not see any risk of a financial crisis in the future,” Anh said, noting that Vietnam’s foreign debts now account for 30.5% of the GDP, in which short-term debt rate is at secure level compared to the nation’s foreign currency reserve.
However, he showed some implicit risks in forex rate, trade deficit, inflation and the government’s policies.
Vietnam would face sudden changes in macro policies related to economic growth and inflation, he said. The government targets 2010 GDP growth of 6.5% and inflation of 7%, but the two targets are on the collision course.
The foreign exchange rate would remain a big issue in 2010 as the depreciation pressure on the Vietnamese dong is still high, Anh predicted.
The State Bank of Vietnam said the credit growth will be capped at 25% next year, after a growth of 37.73% this year. (
www.vietstock.vn, Vietnam Economic Times)
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