The export price of Vietnamese rubber is expected to jump by 10 per cent on the world market for the rest of this year, fuelled by growing world rubber demand and thin supplies, analysts said.
They also forecast Vietnamese rubber shipments to China, the world’s largest rubber importer, will see a price hike of 20 per cent, to US$2,400 per ton from the current US$2,000.
The price will average at US$2,200 a ton on world market.
The world produces about 9 million tons of natural rubber a year.
However, a recent world rubber industry conference in Thailand predicted global demand would jump more than 6 per cent this year.
Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam, the world’s four biggest rubber producers, are all gearing up to raise production, hoping for favorable weather and better yields.
Thailand expects to produce 3.17 million tons this year, up from 3.09 tons last year. Malaysia’s rubber output is forecast to rise by 5 per cent, to 1.35 million tons. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s output is expected to rise 15 per cent, from 540,000 tons in 2006.
But any output rise will be absorbed by growing demand in China, India and Europe, analysts said.
China has to import 1.75 million tons of natural rubber for its surging tire industry this year, a near 9 per cent rise over last year.
India's tire industry is also booming and may boost imports by 20 per cent, to 100,000 tons of natural rubber in the year ending March 2008.
Vietnam General Rubber Corporation (Geruco) therefore forecast steadily increasing export prices in the near term, buoyed by this demand.
Vietnam earned US$309 million from shipping 176,000 tons of rubber in the first four months of 2007, mainly to China, South Korea, Japan and the US, a year-on-year drop of 4.2 per cent in value and 8.4 per cent in volume, due to falling global prices.
It is expected to ship roughly 780,000 - 820,000 tons of rubber this year, a rise of 12 per cent to 17 per cent over last year.
The Vietnamese government recently supported rubber area expansion, even in sub-optimal regions and in neighboring countries such as Laos and Cambodia.
Under the expansion plan, Vietnam will have 700,000 hectares of rubber plantations by 2010, with an export volume of 1 million tons of rubber a year, and around one million ha by 2015.
Vietnamese
